CUSUM: A tool for early feedback about performance?

BACKGROUND: Modern day clinical practice demands evidence justifying our choice of treatment methods. Cumulative sum techniques (cusum) are amongst the simplest statistical methods known. They provide rapid analysis and identification of trends in a series of data. This study highlights use of these techniques as an early performance indicator of a clinical procedure before its implementation. METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients who underwent total hip or knee arthroplasty received a simple dressing – blue gauze and Tegaderm. Cusum charting was used to assess the dressing with regards to skin blistering. At an acceptable level of performance the curve would oscillate about the horizontal axis and the overall trend therefore said to be flat. If performance is unacceptable, the cusum slopes upward. RESULTS: The cusum plot for the twenty patients did not cross the specified control limits. This showed that our simple dressing met specified standards with regards to wound blistering postoperatively. CONCLUSION: We recommend the use of this simple, yet versatile cusum technique in the early evaluation of a clinical procedure before its implementation

Perioperative Bridging Anticoagulation in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND: It is uncertain whether bridging anticoagulation is necessary for patients with atrial fibrillation who need an interruption in warfarin treatment for an elective operation or other elective invasive procedure. We hypothesized that forgoing bridging anticoagulation would be noninferior to bridging with low-molecular-weight heparin for the prevention of perioperative arterial thromboembolism and would be superior to bridging with respect to major bleeding. METHODS: We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in which, after perioperative interruption of warfarin therapy, patients were randomly assigned to receive bridging anticoagulation therapy with low-molecular-weight heparin (100 IU of dalteparin per kilogram of body weight) or matching placebo administered subcutaneously twice daily, from 3 days before the procedure until 24 hours before the procedure and then for 5 to 10 days after the procedure. Warfarin treatment was stopped 5 days before the procedure and was resumed within 24 hours after the procedure. Follow-up of patients continued for 30 days after the procedure. The primary outcomes were arterial thromboembolism (stroke, systemic embolism, or transient ischemic attack) and major bleeding. RESULTS: In total, 1884 patients were enrolled, with 950 assigned to receive no bridging therapy and 934 assigned to receive bridging therapy. The incidence of arterial thromboembolism was 0.4% in the no-bridging group and 0.3% in the bridging group (risk difference, 0.1 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.6 to 0.8; P=0.01 for noninferiority). The incidence of major bleeding was 1.3% in the no-bridging group and 3.2% in the bridging group (relative risk, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.78; P=0.005 for superiority). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with atrial fibrillation who had warfarin treatment interrupted for an elective operation or other elective invasive procedure, forgoing bridging anticoagulation was noninferior to perioperative bridging with low-molecular-weight heparin for the prevention of arterial thromboembolism and decreased the risk of major bleeding. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health; BRIDGE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00786474.)

A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Investigation of K14/K5 as a stem cell marker in the limbal region of the bovine cornea

Background: Identification of stem cells from a corneal epithelial cell population by specific molecular markers has been investigated previously. Expressions of P63, ABCG2 and K14/K5 have all been linked to mammalian corneal epithelial stem cells. Here we report on the limitations of K14/K5 as a limbal stem cell marker. Methodology/Principal Findings: K14/K5 expression was measured by immunohistochemistry, Western blotting and Real time PCR and compared between bovine epithelial cells in the limbus and central cornea. A functional study was also included to investigate changes in K5/14 expression within cultured limbal epithelial cells undergoing forced differentiation. K14 expression (or its partner K5) was detected in quiescent epithelial cells from both the limbal area and central cornea. K14 was localized predominantly to basal epithelial cells in the limbus and suprabasal epithelial cells in the central cornea. Western blotting revealed K14 expression in both limbus and central cornea (higher levels in the limbus). Similarly, quantitative real time PCR found K5, partner to K14, to be expressed in both the central cornea and limbus. Following forced differentiation in culture the limbal epithelial cells revealed an increase in K5/14 gene/protein expression levels in concert with a predictable rise in a known differentiation marker. Conclusions/Significance: K14 and its partner K5 are limited not only to the limbus but also to the central bovine cornea epithelial cells suggesting K14/K5 is not limbal specific in situ. Furthermore K14/K5 expression levels were not lowered (in fact they increased) within a limbal epithelial cell culture undergoing forced differentiation suggesting K14/K5 is an unreliable maker for undifferentiated cells ex vivo

Non-Image-Forming Light Driven Functions Are Preserved in a Mouse Model of Autosomal Dominant Optic Atrophy

Autosomal dominant optic atrophy (ADOA) is a slowly progressive optic neuropathy that has been associated with mutations of the OPA1 gene. In patients, the disease primarily affects the retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) and causes optic nerve atrophy and visual loss. A subset of RGCs are intrinsically photosensitive, express the photopigment melanopsin and drive non-image-forming (NIF) visual functions including light driven circadian and sleep behaviours and the pupil light reflex. Given the RGC pathology in ADOA, disruption of NIF functions might be predicted. Interestingly in ADOA patients the pupil light reflex was preserved, although NIF behavioural outputs were not examined. The B6; C3-Opa1Q285STOP mouse model of ADOA displays optic nerve abnormalities, RGC dendropathy and functional visual disruption. We performed a comprehensive assessment of light driven NIF functions in this mouse model using wheel running activity monitoring, videotracking and pupillometry. Opa1 mutant mice entrained their activity rhythm to the external light/dark cycle, suppressed their activity in response to acute light exposure at night, generated circadian phase shift responses to 480 nm and 525 nm pulses, demonstrated immobility-defined sleep induction following exposure to a brief light pulse at night and exhibited an intensity dependent pupil light reflex. There were no significant differences in any parameter tested relative to wildtype littermate controls. Furthermore, there was no significant difference in the number of melanopsin-expressing RGCs, cell morphology or melanopsin transcript levels between genotypes. Taken together, these findings suggest the preservation of NIF functions in Opa1 mutants. The results provide support to growing evidence that the melanopsin-expressing RGCs are protected in mitochondrial optic neuropathies

Diabetes mellitus type II as a risk factor for depression: a lower than expected risk in a general practice setting

The aim of the present study was to determine whether a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) in a primary setting is associated with an increased risk of subsequent depression. A retrospective cohort design was used based on the Registration Network Family Practice (RNH) database. Patients diagnosed with diabetes mellitus at or after the age of 40 and who were diagnosed between 01-01-1980 and 01-01-2007 (N = 6,140), were compared with age-matched controls from a reference group (N = 18,416) without a history of diabetes. Both groups were followed for an emerging first diagnosis of depression (and/or depressive feelings) until January 1, 2008. 2.0% of the people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus developed a depressive disorder, compared to 1.6% of the reference group. After statistical correction for confounding factors diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of developing subsequent depression (HR 1.26; 95% CI: 1.12–1.42) and/or depressive feelings (HR 1.33; 95% CI: 1.18–1.46). After statistical adjustment practice identification code, age and depression preceding diabetes, were significantly related to a diagnosis of depression. Patients with diabetes mellitus are more likely to develop subsequent depression than persons without a history of diabetes. Results from this large longitudinal study based on a general practice population indicate that this association is weaker than previously found in cross-sectional research using self-report surveys. Several explanations for this dissimilarity are discussed

Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century

Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise